Regional Impacts of Coronavirus
How the crisis has affected the UK as a whole, the different regions within England, and the four nations.
Regional Impacts of Coronavirus
The impact of the UK’s lockdown strategy won’t be the same for all regional economies. Industries tend to cluster together, so some regions are likely to weather the lockdown period better than others.
London has a high concentration of financial and professional services that can generally continue operating under lockdown. But falling demand for consumer products has caused a fall in demand for manufacturing outputs.
This is negatively affecting the West Midlands economy, with its high concentration of manufacturing businesses.
This section looks at the impact on the UK as a whole, the different regions within England, and the four nations.
The UK has faced a significant shutdown in economic activity due to the measures to tackle COVID-19.
The government’s social distancing policy directly affects many businesses that rely on footfall, their supply chains, and businesses that can’t operate remotely.
Table 1 gives an overview of the gross value added (GVA) per day impact because of these measures.
To assess the lockdown’s impact, we estimated demand- and supply-side impacts for each of the following sectors. These include:
- Ability to work remotely
- Proportion of workers off sick
- Actual demand for the products
- Supply-chain disruptions.
We measured these estimated impacts of the lockdown against GVA per day before the COVID-19 outbreak. The tables in this section show the estimated impact on each industry sector, presented in absolute terms and as a percentage loss.
We estimate the lockdown to be reducing total UK GVA per day by 34%, equivalent to £2.7 billion. But certain essential sectors have seen very little impact on their output. Water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities are currently still operating as they were before the lockdown.
Table 1: Coronavirus lockdown impact in the UK
| |
GVA per day pre-coronavirus, £m |
Loss per day, £m |
Remaining, £m |
% lost |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
52.9 |
7.3 |
45.6 |
14% |
| Mining and quarrying |
46.9 |
28 |
18.9 |
60% |
| Manufacturing |
720 |
539.8 |
180.2 |
75% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
105.8 |
20.1 |
85.7 |
19% |
| Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities |
94 |
0 |
94 |
0% |
| Construction |
462.1 |
301.5 |
160.6 |
65% |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles |
800.3 |
486.5 |
313.9 |
61% |
| Transport and storage |
316.9 |
158.7 |
158.2 |
50% |
| Accommodation and food service activities |
217.4 |
204.9 |
12.5 |
94% |
| Information and communication |
583.2 |
12.6 |
570.6 |
2% |
| Financial and insurance activities |
607.1 |
110.4 |
496.7 |
18% |
| Real estate activities |
1097.6 |
261.5 |
836.1 |
24% |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities |
630.4 |
149.8 |
480.6 |
24% |
| Administrative and support service activities |
410 |
81.7 |
328.4 |
20% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
372.1 |
0 |
372.1 |
0% |
| Education |
450.9 |
207.8 |
243.1 |
46% |
| Human health and social work activities |
574.1 |
-14.3 |
588.4 |
-2% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation |
261.2 |
113.9 |
147.3 |
44% |
| Total |
7,803.10 |
2,670.20 |
5,132.90 |
34% |
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, UK Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES), Cebr analysis
The agricultural, forestry and fishing sector has also fared relatively well during lockdown, with an estimated loss of 14% GVA. Given the need for food supply in the country, this sector is likely to remain close to output capacity. There may be some loss due to a reduction in workers from abroad and illnesses from current workers.
We estimate the information and communication sector to be one of the strongest sectors under lockdown.
Demand for telecommunication has surged significantly since February. Vodafone alone reported a 50% rise in internet usage and traffic since the beginning of lockdown.
The professional services sector, including financial services and insurance, makes up a significant share of the UK economy. This sector can largely operate remotely, meaning the industry and the UK as a whole is in a relatively good position to face lockdown.
But financial and insurance services in the UK have still seen a fall in daily GVA of 18%.
This is driven by productivity losses from the abrupt shift to working from home, and the impact of the virus on financial markets.
Manufacturing has taken a significant hit during this period, driven largely by the fall in consumer demand.
We estimate the sector’s GVA to have fallen by 75% per day, a loss of £540m.
Certain subsectors of manufacturing are still operating, namely food production, pharmaceuticals and soaps. Otherwise, the sector is almost completely shut down due to demand reductions.
Education is facing a 54% reduction in GVA per day. The reason this isn’t lower is largely driven by universities.
Final-term university fees have largely been paid during lockdown, online remote learning continues, and many professors and lecturers can work remotely on their research.
Given the self-isolation rules, sporting events have also been mostly cancelled or postponed.
There are a few cases of virtual sports continuing – a Virtual Grand Prix series has replaced postponed races, for example. But given the size of the sector, the absolute loss from postponing and cancelling events is significant at £41 million.
The charity sector has also faced a significant fall in GVA per day. Although many operations can continue remotely, charity events are being cancelled in line with self-isolation. The estimated overall impact is a loss of 35% of GVA per day.
Lockdown restrictions vary slightly between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Generally, the restrictions have been somewhat tighter outside of England.
For instance, construction sites have been shut down in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, but can still operate in England. Tighter restrictions such as these have meant a slightly higher fall in output in these areas.
Table 2: Impact of lockdown on select subsectors of the economy
| |
GVA loss per day, £m |
GVA remaining, £m |
% lost |
% remaining |
| Agriculture |
7.3 |
45.6 |
14% |
86% |
| Manufacturing |
539.8 |
180.2 |
75% |
25% |
| Education |
207.8 |
243.1 |
46% |
54% |
| Sport activities |
40.6 |
4.5 |
90% |
10% |
| Charity |
11.9 |
22.2 |
35% |
65% |
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
England accounts for 88% of UK gross value added (GVA), so the overall losses unsurprisingly follow a very similar distribution compared to the wider economy.
In all, the COVID-19 crisis and the lockdown has reduced England’s GVA by 34%. The biggest absolute impacts are in the manufacturing and construction industries, where £470m and £436m a day are being lost respectively .
Table 3 illustrates the calculated GVA loss for England as a whole.
Table 3: Coronavirus lockdown impact in England
| |
GVA per day pre-coronavirus, £m
|
Loss per day, £m
|
Remaining, £m
|
% lost
|
|
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
|
35.8
|
4.8
|
31.0
|
13%
|
|
Mining and quarrying
|
17.0
|
10.8
|
6.2
|
63%
|
|
Manufacturing
|
616.1
|
470.6
|
145.5
|
76%
|
|
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
|
87.8
|
16.7
|
71.1
|
19%
|
|
Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities
|
81.2
|
0.0
|
81.2
|
0%
|
|
Construction
|
399.4
|
239.6
|
159.8
|
60%
|
|
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
|
712.3
|
436.0
|
276.3
|
61%
|
|
Transport and storage
|
284.3
|
142.3
|
142.0
|
50%
|
|
Accommodation and food service activities
|
189.5
|
178.4
|
11.1
|
94%
|
|
Information and communication
|
536.8
|
13.5
|
523.3
|
3%
|
|
Financial and insurance activities
|
540.0
|
98.8
|
441.2
|
18%
|
|
Real estate activities
|
992.2
|
236.4
|
755.9
|
24%
|
|
Professional, scientific and technical activities
|
575.4
|
130.8
|
444.5
|
23%
|
|
Administrative and support service activities
|
364.4
|
71.7
|
292.8
|
20%
|
|
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
|
306.7
|
0.0
|
306.7
|
0%
|
|
Education
|
400.1
|
184.4
|
215.7
|
46%
|
|
Human health and social work activities
|
490.7
|
-12.2
|
503.0
|
-2%
|
|
Arts, entertainment and recreation
|
229.0
|
100.1
|
129.0
|
44%
|
| Total
|
6858.8
|
2322.6
|
4536.2
|
34%
|
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
The Scottish economy is losing around £217m a day due to the COVID-19 crisis and restrictions.
This is approximately 36% of all gross value added (GVA) generated within Scotland.
The biggest overall loss is in the construction sector, which is currently producing £4m a day in GVA, compared to £40m before the crisis. This is unsurprising given the tough lockdown measures imposed on the construction industry in Scotland. The inevitable fall in demand due to the wider economic crisis has also played a part.
Scotland attributes a relatively high proportion of its economy to agriculture, forestry and fishing (1.6% of the total economy compared to 0.7% for the UK as a whole). This has helped protect the economy through the COVID-19 crisis.
But Scotland also attributes relatively large proportions of its economy to accommodation and food services. These areas have been significantly affected by the fall in tourism and the restrictions on restaurant openings.
Table 4: Coronavirus lockdown impact in Scotland
| |
GVA per day pre-corona virus, £m
|
Loss per day, £m
|
Remaining, £m
|
% lost
|
|
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
|
9.8
|
1.5
|
8.3
|
16%
|
|
Mining and quarrying
|
28.4
|
16.1
|
12.3
|
57%
|
|
Manufacturing
|
56.2
|
34.3
|
21.9
|
61%
|
|
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
|
12.4
|
2.4
|
10.0
|
19%
|
|
Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities
|
7.6
|
0.0
|
7.6
|
0%
|
|
Construction
|
40.1
|
36.1
|
4.0
|
90%
|
|
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
|
54.1
|
31.3
|
22.8
|
58%
|
|
Transport and storage
|
22.5
|
11.4
|
11.1
|
51%
|
|
Accommodation and food service activities
|
17.7
|
16.7
|
0.9
|
95%
|
|
Information and communication
|
31.6
|
-0.7
|
32.2
|
-2%
|
|
Financial and insurance activities
|
45.5
|
8.1
|
37.4
|
18%
|
|
Real estate activities
|
63.3
|
15.1
|
48.2
|
24%
|
|
Professional, scientific and technical activities
|
35.8
|
13.4
|
22.5
|
37%
|
|
Administrative and support service activities
|
30.6
|
6.6
|
24.0
|
22%
|
|
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
|
41.4
|
0.0
|
41.4
|
0%
|
|
Education
|
29.7
|
13.7
|
16.0
|
46%
|
|
Human health and social work activities
|
52.0
|
-1.3
|
53.3
|
-2%
|
|
Arts, entertainment and recreation
|
20.3
|
8.7
|
11.5
|
43%
|
|
Total
|
599.0
|
213.6
|
385.4
|
36%
|
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
Welsh gross value added (GVA) has fallen by 37% because of the crisis and resulting lockdown.
14% of Welsh GVA comes from the manufacturing sector, compared to just 9% for the UK as a whole. So it’s no surprise that manufacturing has seen the biggest loss in GVA, approximately £22m a day. The sector has suffered due to falls in consumer spending, particularly on durable goods.
Jobs in Wales also tend to be less concentrated in ‘high-skilled’ service roles that are often easier to do from home.
For instance, just 6.3% of all GVA generated in Wales is from financial and insurance activities, compared to 7.8% in the UK as a whole. Countries like Wales with a lower concentration of these roles will therefore see a larger overall GVA loss.
Table 5: Coronavirus lockdown impact in Wales
| |
GVA per day pre-coronavirus, £m |
Loss per day, £m |
Remaining, £m |
% lost |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
4.3 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
14% |
| Mining and quarrying |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0 |
92% |
| Manufacturing |
30.8 |
22.2 |
8.6 |
72% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
3.5 |
0.7 |
2.8 |
19% |
| Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities |
3.3 |
0 |
3.3 |
0% |
| Construction |
14.4 |
13 |
1.4 |
90% |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles |
20.2 |
10.8 |
9.4 |
53% |
| Transport and storage |
6.3 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
49% |
| Accommodation and food service activities |
6.6 |
6.3 |
0.3 |
95% |
| Information and communication |
8.7 |
-0.3 |
9 |
-3% |
| Financial and insurance activities |
13.6 |
2.1 |
11.5 |
16% |
| Real estate activities |
27 |
6.4 |
20.6 |
24% |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities |
10.8 |
3.3 |
7.5 |
31% |
| Administrative and support service activities |
9.2 |
2.2 |
7 |
24% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
17.2 |
0 |
17.2 |
0% |
| Education |
12.8 |
5.9 |
6.9 |
46% |
| Human health and social work activities |
20.7 |
-0.5 |
21.2 |
-2% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation |
6.6 |
2.8 |
3.8 |
42% |
| Total |
216.7 |
79.2 |
137.5 |
37% |
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
Out of all UK nations, Northern Ireland has lost the highest proportion of its overall gross value added (GVA) due to the COVID-19 lockdown. In all, GVA is 38% lower than pre-lockdown.
Lockdown restrictions have been slightly more stringent in Northern Ireland than in England - for instance, construction sites have closed. These tighter restrictions have inevitably had an impact on the economic output lost.
Northern Ireland has a higher than average concentration of workers in the manufacturing sector, which has largely been shut down due to falling demand.
Manufacturing makes up 13.1% of all employment in Northern Ireland, compared to 9.2% for the UK as a whole. ).
Conversely, it has a lower concentration of workers in financial and professional services. These sectors find it easier to work remotely, and continue finding customers for their products during lockdown. The lower concentration of these industries has caused a greater overall loss to GVA.
Table 6: Coronavirus lockdown impact on Northern Ireland
| |
GVA per day pre-coronavirus, £m |
Loss per day, £m |
Remaining, £m |
% lost |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
3 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
14% |
| Mining and quarrying |
1 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
61% |
| Manufacturing |
16.9 |
12.7 |
4.2 |
75% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
2.1 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
19% |
| Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities |
1.9 |
0 |
1.9 |
0% |
| Construction |
8.1 |
7.3 |
0.8 |
90% |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles |
13.8 |
8.4 |
5.4 |
61% |
| Transport and storage |
3.7 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
49% |
| Accommodation and food service activities |
3.7 |
3.5 |
0.2 |
94% |
| Information and communication |
6.2 |
0.1 |
6.1 |
2% |
| Financial and insurance activities |
8 |
1.4 |
6.5 |
18% |
| Real estate activities |
15 |
3.6 |
11.5 |
24% |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities |
8.4 |
2.3 |
6.1 |
27% |
| Administrative and support service activities |
5.7 |
1.1 |
4.6 |
19% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
6.9 |
0 |
6.9 |
0% |
| Education |
8.3 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
46% |
| Human health and social work activities |
10.7 |
-0.3 |
10.9 |
-2% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation |
5.3 |
2.3 |
3 |
43% |
| Total |
128.6 |
49.4 |
79.2 |
38% |
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
London is the UK’s hub for financial and insurance services, which is a sector that can reasonably be operated remotely.
So it’s not surprising to see London faring the best out of all the sub-regions for gross value added (GVA) lost per day.
Overall, we estimate London to have a fall of GVA per day of 28%. This is significantly below the next lowest regions, the East of England and the South East, both of which face a 35% fall.
But despite the lowest relative loss, London faces the greatest absolute loss per day at £575 million.
The accommodation and food services sector has struggled significantly since the lockdown began.
This industry relies entirely on footfall into restaurants and visitors into hotels, both of which have completely stopped.
London, a major destination for visitors with a vibrant restaurant scene, has seen a significant fall in GVA per day in this sector of £55 million, equivalent to 94% of the total. The remaining output primarily comes from food services such as deliveries.
In London, as in all regions, the human health and social work activities sector has actually seen an increase in GVA per day.
This is driven entirely by the surge in hospital and care work due to the virus. Many doctors and nurses have returned from retirement, creating additional GVA on top of the overtime and additional funding the sector is getting.
Table 7: Coronavirus lockdown impact in London
| |
GVA per day pre-coronavirus, £m |
Loss per day, £m |
Remaining, £m |
% lost |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
40% |
| Mining and quarrying |
7.5 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
49% |
| Manufacturing |
52.4 |
29.6 |
22.8 |
57% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
20.9 |
4 |
16.9 |
19% |
| Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities |
8.8 |
0 |
8.8 |
0% |
| Construction |
84.7 |
50.8 |
33.9 |
60% |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles |
151.3 |
86.4 |
64.9 |
57% |
| Transport and storage |
70 |
42.7 |
27.2 |
61% |
| Accommodation and food service activities |
58.2 |
54.7 |
3.5 |
94% |
| Information and communication |
250.8 |
11.9 |
238.8 |
5% |
| Financial and insurance activities |
266.7 |
51.3 |
215.3 |
19% |
| Real estate activities |
378.2 |
90.1 |
288.1 |
24% |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities |
236.5 |
50.1 |
186.5 |
21% |
| Administrative and support service activities |
114 |
26.8 |
87.3 |
23% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
93.4 |
0 |
93.4 |
0% |
| Education |
94.5 |
43.5 |
50.9 |
46% |
| Human health and social work activities |
114.3 |
-2.8 |
117.1 |
-2% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation |
70 |
31.9 |
38.2 |
45% |
| Total |
2,072.50 |
574.9 |
1,497.60 |
28% |
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
Many consider the South East to be the second most prosperous region in England after London.
It’s also a major commuter region for London, with many residents in south-eastern areas, such as Kent, working in the capital.
The South East in total faces a loss of 35% of gross value added (GVA) per day. This makes it one of the better-faring regions, with only London retaining more of its GVA per day.
The resilience of the South East’s economy can again be traced to the professional services sector and remote working.
Wholesale and retail trade is one major sectors of the South East economy. Before the lockdown, it produced £135m of GVA per day.
The sector saw a significant surge in food retail at the outset of the lockdown due to panic buying, but has since stabilised.
Overall, the sector is facing a loss of GVA per day of £85m, equivalent to 63%. Many non-essential retail outlets have stopped trading under lockdown, with only online retail and essential retail continuing. Online retail only accounts for about 19% of total sales, which can’t fully recover lost in-store non-food retail sales.
This fall in consumer demand has inevitably impacted the manufacturing sector, which acts as a key supply-chain input. GVA per day in the sector has fallen by 81% against pre-lockdown levels. This is equivalent to £75m less GVA per day, the second largest loss for the region behind wholesale and retail.
Table 8: Coronavirus lockdown impact in the South East
| |
GVA per day pre-coronavirus, £m |
Loss per day, £m |
Remaining, £m |
% lost |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
6.7 |
1 |
5.7 |
15% |
| Mining and quarrying |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
74% |
| Manufacturing |
92.7 |
74.9 |
17.7 |
81% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
14.2 |
2.7 |
11.5 |
19% |
| Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities |
22.6 |
0 |
22.6 |
0% |
| Construction |
77.2 |
46.3 |
30.9 |
60% |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles |
134.7 |
84.8 |
49.9 |
63% |
| Transport and storage |
51.2 |
24.6 |
26.5 |
48% |
| accommodation and food service activities |
31.5 |
29.7 |
1.9 |
94% |
| Information and communication |
100.5 |
1.5 |
99 |
2% |
| Financial and insurance activities |
70.1 |
11.4 |
58.6 |
16% |
| Real estate activities |
132.2 |
31.5 |
100.7 |
24% |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities |
92.2 |
20.4 |
71.8 |
22% |
| Administrative and support service activities |
60.4 |
12.1 |
48.3 |
20% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
41.7 |
0 |
41.7 |
0% |
| Education |
77.6 |
35.8 |
41.8 |
46% |
| Human health and social work activities |
85.3 |
-2.1 |
87.4 |
-2% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation |
40.4 |
17.9 |
22.5 |
44% |
| Total |
1,132.30 |
393.3 |
739 |
35% |
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
The South West faces a gross value added (GVA) loss per day of 36%, equivalent to £185 million.
This comes from a pre-COVID level of £510m in GVA per day, placing the South West fairly centrally in terms of ranking of GVA by regions.
Aside from Scotland, the South West has the greatest agricultural GVA per day of any region, at £6.4m per day pre-COVID. Given the essential nature of this sector it’s weathering the lockdown relatively well. In the South West, agricultural GVA has only fallen by 12%, or £0.8m of GVA per day.
Accommodation and food services play a proportionally larger role in the South West economy. The GVA generated by the sector before the crisis was 3.8% of the South West, compared to 2.8% for the UK economy as a whole. This sector has seen a 95% fall in GVA, causing a significant impact on the local economy.
Table 9: Coronavirus lockdown impact in the South West
| |
GVA per day pre-coronavirus, £m |
Loss per day, £m |
Remaining, £m |
% lost |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
6.4 |
0.8 |
5.7 |
12% |
| Mining and quarrying |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
86% |
| Manufacturing |
55 |
42.7 |
12.3 |
78% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
8 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
19% |
| Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities |
9.6 |
0 |
9.6 |
0% |
| Construction |
36.1 |
21.7 |
14.4 |
60% |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles |
57 |
34.7 |
22.3 |
61% |
| Transport and storage |
17.8 |
9.2 |
8.6 |
52% |
| Accommodation and food service activities |
19.3 |
18.3 |
1 |
95% |
| Information and communication |
28.3 |
0.5 |
27.8 |
2% |
| Financial and insurance activities |
30.5 |
5.3 |
25.1 |
18% |
| Real estate activities |
71.4 |
17 |
54.4 |
24% |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities |
32.4 |
8 |
24.4 |
25% |
| Administrative and support service activities |
20.4 |
4 |
16.5 |
19% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
25.6 |
0 |
25.6 |
0% |
| Education |
30.1 |
13.9 |
16.2 |
46% |
| Human health and social work activities |
44 |
-1.1 |
45.1 |
-2% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation |
16.9 |
7.5 |
9.3 |
45% |
| Total |
510.1 |
185.1 |
325 |
36% |
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
The East of England faces a fall in gross value added (GVA) per day of 35%, equivalent to £241m.
This region houses the University of Cambridge, the University of East Anglia and Anglia Ruskin University, contributing to a significant GVA per day from the education sector at £43m per day pre-COVID.
The region’s universities are all carrying out some sort of virtual learning, maintaining a proportion of the sector’s output. We estimate the sector to have a loss in GVA of 46% per day, equivalent to £20m.
Like the South West, the East of England has faced a significant fall in GVA from wholesale retail activities. Individuals are relying on online deliveries rather than shops, reducing total expenditure.
Table 10: Coronavirus lockdown impact in the East of England
| |
GVA per day pre-coronavirus, £m |
Loss per day, £m |
Remaining, £m |
% lost |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
5.1 |
0.6 |
4.5 |
12% |
| Mining and quarrying |
2.3 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
55% |
| Manufacturing |
67.6 |
48.5 |
19.1 |
72% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
5.3 |
1 |
4.3 |
19% |
| Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities |
10.3 |
0 |
10.3 |
0% |
| Construction |
51 |
30.6 |
20.4 |
60% |
| Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles |
83.1 |
52.1 |
30.9 |
63% |
| Transport and storage |
33.1 |
14.4 |
18.7 |
44% |
| accommodation and food service activities |
17.3 |
16.3 |
1 |
94% |
| Information and communication |
39.3 |
0.4 |
38.9 |
1% |
| Financial and insurance activities |
34.9 |
5 |
29.9 |
14% |
| Real estate activities |
89.3 |
21.3 |
68 |
24% |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities |
62.9 |
13.9 |
49 |
22% |
| Administrative and support service activities |
39.5 |
6.7 |
32.8 |
17% |
| Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
24.4 |
0 |
24.4 |
0% |
| Education |
43.4 |
20 |
23.4 |
46% |
| Human health and social work activities |
47.9 |
-1.2 |
49.1 |
-2% |
| Arts, entertainment and recreation |
21.8 |
9.5 |
12.3 |
44% |
| Total |
678.6 |
240.6 |
438 |
35% |
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey, BRES, Cebr analysis
The East Midlands will take the largest hit during this lockdown period, according to our estimates.
They show that gross value added (GVA) per day will fall by 40%, equivalent to £164m.
The East Midlands is one of the major manufacturing regions within the UK. As in all regions, manufacturing has largely shut down as demand for products has fallen significantly. Manufacturing loss in the East Midlands accounts for just under one third of the total GVA lost in the region, at £50m per day.
The region also has little in the way of the professional services economy, which is proving resilient elsewhere thanks to employees working from home. With most of the East Midlands’ GVA coming from sectors where home working isn’t an option, the region is likely to be the hardest hit.
